Analysis of Previous Selections

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Analysis of Top Rated Selections 1991-2009

All Races

All-Weather Flat Races

All NH Races

Handicap Hurdle Races

Handicap Chase Races

Novice Hurdle Races

Novice Chase Races

Generate Custom Report

Custom Report

These links lead to pages which analyse selections produced by the computer program for previous years.

Races are included in the lists where at least 70% of the horses in the race have run in the last 3 months. This ensures that there is a reasonable amount of recent form for the computer progran to work with.

The analysis shows that some types of race are more profitable than others in the long run. I would not necessarily advise betting on all of the races included in the lists, but everything is included so that you can make your own decisions.

Click on the links on the left for the details.

The Custom Report link allows you to generate your own report analysing certain types of races.

Example/Explanation :

All Races
	Top Rated					2nd Rated					3rd Rated
	Outcome			Return		Outcome			Return		Outcome			Return
	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W
All Races	89797	26%	53%	105%	103%	87134	18%	44%	96%	97%	85630	14%	37%	90%	92%

Number of Runners
	Top Rated					2nd Rated					3rd Rated
	Outcome			Return		Outcome			Return		Outcome			Return
	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W	Bets	Win	Place	Win	E/W
2 - 5	10555	41%	54%	103%	100%	10387	26%	40%	93%	92%	10222	18%	29%	84%	83%
6 - 7	15001	31%	53%	104%	96%	14683	22%	43%	95%	89%	14585	16%	34%	88%	83%
8 - 9	16348	27%	60%	106%	105%	15896	19%	52%	93%	98%	15755	14%	46%	88%	96%
10 -11	15520	24%	55%	103%	101%	15047	18%	47%	96%	96%	14732	13%	41%	88%	93%
12 -13	12597	21%	50%	106%	104%	12106	15%	43%	97%	99%	11837	13%	36%	94%	96%
14 -15	8522	19%	45%	104%	101%	8236	14%	38%	102%	99%	8057	12%	35%	92%	94%
16+	11254	16%	45%	108%	112%	10779	13%	39%	98%	106%	10442	11%	35%	94%	102%

The first table above indicates that there were a total of 89,797 (clear) top rated selections analysed. 26% of these actually won while 53% were placed (for a definition of placed, see below). If you had bet the same amount on all 89,797 horses (at SP), your return would have been 105% of your stakes. So, for every 100 units staked, 105 would have been returned (a profit of 5). Similarly, an each way bet on all top rated horses would have returned 103% of stakes (a profit of 3%).

There is similar data for (clear) second and (clear) third rated horses.

The second table shows the same races split up according to the number of runners in the races. So, 11,254 of the 89,797 races involved 16 or more runners. The top rated horse won 16% of these races and was placed 45% of the time. The return on backing all 11,254 horses was 108%

Click on the links on the left for details of different categories of race. You will find that the percentage of winners and the returns differ in different categories of race.

The definition of 'placed' depends on the number of runners in the race.
2 to 4 runners - 1st only
5 to 7 runners - 1st or 2nd
8+ runners - 1st or 2nd or 3rd
16+ runners (handicap races only) - 1st or 2nd or 3rd or 4th

Note that I have only included clear top rated selections (and clear second top rated etc.). Where the ratings of horses are identical, the results have been omitted. This is why there are more top rated selections in the tables than second top rated and third top rated.

adrian@adrianmassey.com